This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow.
The labor market indicators are likely to show continued strength. October's jobs-plentiful series in the consumer confidence survey (Tue) probably stayed high (chart). It is highly inversely correlated with the jobs-hard-to-get series, which closely tracks the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims.
Weekly initial unemployment claims (Thu) has been pushing bond yields higher lately because the 4-week average of the series has been declining, suggesting that the unemployment rate remained low in October (chart). Jobless claims likely remained low too during the October 20 week.
October's personal income report (Fri) should show a modest gain in personal income, a solid increase in consumer spending, and further moderation in the core PCED inflation rate, especially excluding rent. October's regional business surveys for Richmond (Tue) and Kansas City (Thu) should confirm the New York and Philadelphia surveys results, i.e., the goods-providing economy is still relatively weak, but recovering (chart).
