Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation than the CPI, which includes a couple of rent components that remain troublesome.
On Wednesday, mortgage applications for new purchases for the 10/7 week are likely to remain in the freefall of the past couple of weeks, which can be attributed to the plunge in the Housing Affordability Index, which will be updated through August on Friday.
Tuesday's release of September's NFIB small business owners survey is likely to paint a recessionary picture of the economy from their perspective. The survey is likely to confirm that fewer of them are raising their selling prices.
September's retail sales (Fri.) may weigh on Q3's GDP if consumers are shifting from spending on goods to (offsetting) spending on services. The same day, the Consumer Sentiment Index for the first half of October may weaken in response to rising gasoline prices.
