Now that a debt deal is on the verge of becoming a done deal, the markets can focus on economic growth and inflation. This week will be a big one for labor market indicators. May's consumer confidence survey (Tue) will include a series for "jobs plentiful." The latter is highly correlated with the JOLTS report's "job openings" series to be released with April data on Wednesday. It should remain relatively high (chart). The Fed and the markets will be focusing on average hourly earnings, which should confirm that wage inflation is continuing to moderate.
The consensus expectations for May's payroll employment report (Fri) is a relatively modest gain of 180,000. So far this year, the actual numbers have beat expectations, but revisions have been to the downside over the past three months through March (chart).
