Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/27/23

Mar 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The recent banking crisis has heightened fears of a recession. But still the S&P 500 is up ytd—buoyed greatly by the MegaCap-8 stocks. … The SVB debacle hasn’t changed our economic outlook, which pegs the odds of a recession at a relatively high 40%, as we’re not convinced it will lead to a credit crunch that triggers a recession. Below is exclusive early access to Dr

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/20/23

Mar 22, 2023 1 min read

The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate inverted in November; such inversions are predictive of credit crunches and recessions. They also tend to predict financial crises that halt Fed tightening. It’s too early to credit the yield-curve inversion for calling a recession, but it was spot on in presaging a crisis like SVB. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/13/23

Mar 15, 2023 1 min read

Tightening monetary cycles often end abruptly when “something breaks” and a financial crisis is triggered. If the Silicon Valley Bank run is that something, it could mean tightening ends sooner and bond yields have peaked. We can’t say for sure that’s the case but can say the debacle should keep the tech sector mired in its rolling recession for longer. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed&

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/6/23

Mar 8, 2023 1 min read

Productivity was poor last year—declining more than it has since 1974—and growth in unit labor costs was high. But the final quarter of 2022 saw significant improvements in both, and we think the worst is over for both. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If productivity continues

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/27/23

Mar 1, 2023 1 min read

The stock market beat a hasty retreat in February, spooked by reports of January’s economic strength and the Fed’s dreaded possible reaction. So today we look at what March’s releases of economic data for February might bring. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. They could be

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/23

Feb 22, 2023 1 min read paid

What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/13/23

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read

Perversely, the financial markets’ vote of confidence in the Fed’s ability to subdue inflation without getting the economy into trouble represents a threat to those very efforts, in Fed officials’ eyes, loosening financial conditions as the Fed tightens them. So Fed officials have been trying to squelch investor optimism. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/6/23

Feb 8, 2023 1 min read

Last week brought plenty of affirmation for stock-market bulls, with lots of favorable data releases and a less hawkish-sounding Fed Chair Powell. The data depicted an economy that has not been landing at all but remaining quite airborne amid more signs of disinflation. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/30/23

Feb 1, 2023 1 min read

The global financial markets are reflecting expectations for an improved global economy, and the US stock market is siding with the optimists on the US economic outlook, us among them: We continue to see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/23/23

Jan 23, 2023 1 min read

Brace yourself for December’s Leading Economic Indicators and Coincident Economic Indicators coming out today. They are likely to trigger another recession alarm. But we still see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. What can the LEI

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/18/23

Jan 18, 2023 1 min read

Consensus economic views seem to be mostly pessimistic. Big bank CEOs are preparing for a mild recession. Americans are skittish about a downturn, most economists project a recession, and lots of investment strategists remain bearish. But not us: Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We don’t foresee recessions

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/10/23

Jan 10, 2023 1 min read

We still see greater odds that the economy will glide to a soft landing (60%) than plummet to a hard one (40%), which nearly everyone else expects. What might a soft landing look like? Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. The happiest—and most contrary—of scenarios would be

Ed Yardeni

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