US Economy

Mortgage Rate Rockets Up To 8%

Oct 18, 2023 1 min read

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rocketed up to 8.00% today. It is up from 7.57% on October 12 (chart). That's the highest it has been since most of the 1990s. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.91% today. That along with the unnerving crisis in the Middle East unnerved the stock market today. Mortgage applications to purchase new and existing homes is now

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market's Meltup Continues

Jun 15, 2023 2 min read

Investors had a quick look at today's economic indicators and concluded that the economy is still growing albeit slowly while inflation is continuing to moderate. The FOMC's next meeting is at the end of July. By then, the committee might conclude that the federal funds rate, currently still at 5.00%-5.25%, might be restrictive enough to get the inflation rate close to 2.0%

Ed Yardeni

Markets' Message to the Fed: Just Say No to More Rate Hikes

May 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market sent a message to the FOMC today: Cease and desist from any more rate hikes, please. The stock market selloff was led by another rout of the Financials sectors of the S&P 1500. Here is what they did today and since March 8, the day before SVB imploded: S&P 500 LargeCaps (-2.3%, -7.3%), S&P 400 MidCaps (-3.2, -14.

Ed Yardeni

Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse

Apr 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed's H.4.1 report is released every Thursday at 4:15 pm. It shows the Fed's assets and liabilities. Yesterday's report shows that the Fed's total assets edged down to $8.7 trillion after rising since early March when banks scrambled to borrow from the Fed's liquidity facilities to offset deposit outflows during the SVB-induced banking crisis (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder

Apr 20, 2023 3 min read

The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums more loudly. Today's batch of economic indicators gave the bears plenty to growl about. Consider the following: (1) LEI. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during February 2022 (chart). It's been falling since then. It was down during March

Ed Yardeni

More Shoes To Drop?

Mar 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Needless to say, the recent turmoil in the banking sector is raising renewed fears of a recession and a resumption of last year's bear market. The rolling recession could turn into a full-blown recession if the turmoil roils the banking system significantly. Bankers could become more cautious lenders especially among the smaller regional and community banks. On the other hand, the Fed probably stabilized the situation with its

Ed Yardeni

Capital Spending Getting A Lift From Washington

Feb 28, 2023 1 min read paid

Inflation-adjusted capital spending rose 4% y/y during Q4. That was a solid increase. However, it may be starting to slow. The CEO Outlook Index compiled by the Business Roundtable fell most of last year as the Fed's interest rate hikes heightened recession concerns (chart). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft have stalled at a record high in recent months through January (chart). The weakness in primary metals,

Ed Yardeni

More Soft Landing Stats

Feb 22, 2023 2 min read paid

No boom, no bust. That describes yesterday's flash estimates for February's M-PMI and NM-PMI released by S&P Global. They both track the comparable series compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The flash M-PMI rose from 46.9 in January to 47.8 this month (chart). It suggests that the ISM's version of this index will uptick but remain below 50.

Ed Yardeni

Less Inflation & Growth In Three Regional Surveys

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read paid

We now have three business surveys for January conducted by the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Collectively, they are showing less economic growth and lower inflation. The average of their general business indexes dropped further into negative territory this month, suggesting that the M-PMI also fell further below 50.0 this month (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Surveys Say NY & Philly Manufacturing Weak

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read paid

Stock prices tanked yesterday following reports showing sharp declines in December's retail sales and industrial production. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) fell to -24.7 (chart). The 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury yield (in basis points) is highly correlated with the CESI and it continued to drop yesterday. On Tuesday, January's NY Fed business survey was much weaker than we

Ed Yardeni

A Bowl of Mixed Nuts

Jan 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's batch of economic indicators was mixed, showing that the manufacturing economy remains weak, while the labor market remains strong. In addition, inflationary pressures continue to ebb in the goods sector. Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model's latest estimate was that real GDP rose 3.9% (saar) during Q4, up from 3.2% during Q3. Here's more:

Ed Yardeni

Running Out of Money?

Jan 2, 2023 2 min read members

Monetarists seem to be making a comeback, and they are sounding the alarm that the recent weakness in the M2 measure of money is confirming that monetary policy already is tight enough to cause a recession. We’ve addressed this issue in the past, and we still aren’t alarmed.

Ed Yardeni

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