Stock Market

Why Are LargeCaps Doing Better Than SMidCaps?

May 21, 2024 2 min read paid

Why has the S&P 500 LargeCaps stock price index been more expensive than the indexes for the S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps since the pandemic (chart)? From around 2005 until about 2019, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 had mostly been below the forward P/Es of the SMidCaps (chart). The last time that LargeCaps sported higher P/

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Loop-The-Loop

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read

Keep your seat belts on: There may be a few more loop-the-loops in the stock market's rollercoaster ride. Or at least wear a neck brace. It's been a wild ride recently. After peaking at a record high on March 28, the S&P 500 plunged below its 50-day moving average and rose last week closing just below this average (chart). Geopolitical risks remain high, though

Ed Yardeni

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Apr 16, 2024 2 min read paid

It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that inflation is coming down fast enough to consider cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) any time soon: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said at a moderated

Ed Yardeni

More Bumps Ahead?

Apr 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has often said that the road toward lowering inflation down to the Fed's 2.0% target is likely to be bumpy. Nevertheless, there has been no turbulence in the stock market's smooth ascent to new record highs since October 27, 2023, which marked the end of a 10.3% correction in the bull market that started October 12, 2022 (chart). Nevertheless, we

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Market Calls .... as reported in the financial press

Mar 30, 2024 1 min read

We are often asked about our track record in predicting the economy and financial markets. In response, we've compiled a handy chronological list of links to articles in the financial press that have reported on our predictions. We thank those of you have signed up for a full membership to our QuickTakes. You can find a discussion of our "current analysis" approach to forecasting in Dr.

Ed Yardeni

Performance Derby

Mar 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rally should continue to broaden as investors realize that the MegaCap-8 are not bulletproof. Tesla has competitors such as China's BYD , which on Monday lowered the starting price of its Seal electric sedan to just under $25,000. Last week, on Thursday, the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. Also recently, US antitrust officials filed antimonopoly lawsuits against Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Fed Put Is Back

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week, the FOMC released its latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for March. Compared to December's SEP, the committee's participants raised their 2024 median forecasts for real GDP (from 1.4% to 2.1%) and for the core PCED inflation rate (from 2.4% to 2.6%). Their median forecast for the unemployment rate was lowered a bit from 4.1% to 4.0%

Ed Yardeni

Moon Shot

Mar 21, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today closing at 5241.53 (chart). We wrote the following last year on July 19 in our Morning Briefing: "The S&P 500 is now almost at [our yearend target of] 4600. It closed at 4556.27 on Tuesday. Rather than raise our year-end target, we are raising our expectations for what the bull market could deliver

Ed Yardeni

The S&P 500/400/600 Performance Derby

Mar 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 LargeCap stock price index is up 44.0% since the end of the latest bear market on October 12, 2022. The S&P 400 MidCap and S&P 600 SmallCap are up 29.5% and 17.8% since then. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are trading at record highs, while the S&P 600 remains below its

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

Happy Groundhog Day!

Feb 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, woke up this morning and did not see his shadow, calling for an early spring. In the 1979 comedy movie classic, "Being There," Chauncey Gardner, played by Peter Sellers, predicted: "Yes! There will be growth in the spring!" There has been growth in the winter too. Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1's growth was

Ed Yardeni

Market Dives As Powell Pushes Back

Feb 1, 2024 2 min read paid

As we expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on market expectations of a federal funds rate cut in March and more to come over the rest of the year. He was less dovish than the market expected. If he had been more dovish, he would have risked inflating a speculative asset bubble. Instead, stocks took a dive today in response to his press conference (chart). Stock prices were already

Ed Yardeni

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