Stock Market

The stock market is driven by two key variables: the earnings estimates of industry analysts and the valuation multiple that investors are will to pay for those expectations. These QuickTakes monitor the latest developments relevant to stock investors.

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Beware of Wildlife

Jun 1, 2022 1 min read

On our first day at Yellowstone National Park yesterday, my wife Valerie and I spotted lots of bison, but no bears. I believe this is a bullish omen for the stock market. They were all grazing quietly. We hope to see some bears today. Hopefully, they won't pose a menacing threat to us. Of course, at Yardeni Research, our outlook for the economy and financial markets isn'

Ed Yardeni

A Good Week For a Change

May 29, 2022 2 min read paid

Last week was the first good one for the stock market in quite a while. The S&P 500 rose 6.6%, with two of the index’s most depressed sectors this year outperforming for a change: Consumer Discretionary (9.2%) and Information Technology (8.1%). Nevertheless, the best-performing sector this year so far has been Energy, and it was up 8.1% last week too. Financials (8.0%

Ed Yardeni

Tech Has Had a Rough Year, but What Comes Next?

May 28, 2022 3 min read

The front cover story of the May 30 BusinessWeek is titled THE GREAT TECH ROUT (linked below). Might this be the latest contrary indicator for bullishly-inclined investors? The story was actually posted on Bloomberg on Thursday, May 26 at 12:01 AM EDT. The Nasdaq fell to the year's low of 11,264.45 on Tuesday, May 24. It was up 7.7% by Friday's close.

Ed Yardeni

Are the Economic Fundamentals Bullish or Bearish for the S&P 500?

May 28, 2022 2 min read

There is a remarkably close fit between the yearly percent change in the S&P 500 stock price index and the national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI). The latter is available only through April; the reading for May will be released next week, on Wednesday, June 1. However, the M-PMI is highly correlated with the general business indexes of the regional business surveys compiled by the Federal Reserve Banks

Ed Yardeni

A Short History Of Falling P/Es

May 23, 2022 1 min read paid

In the past, there have been dives in the S&P 500’s valuation multiple similar to the one so far this year: (1) The valuation deterioration in the early 1970s was associated with the devaluation of the dollar by President Nixon and the first of the decade’s two energy price shocks. Along the way, Franklin National blew up. Inflation was a protracted problem throughout the 1970s. (2)

Ed Yardeni

Seeking Safe Havens In S&P 500 Sectors & Industries

May 20, 2022 1 min read paid

It's hard to find too many places to hide from the unrelenting selloff in the S&P 500 since the start of the year.

Ed Yardeni

Forward P/Es Falling Faster Than Forward Earnings Are Rising

May 20, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500/400/600 stock price indexes are down 18.1%, 16.1%, and 16.4% ytd through today's close.

Ed Yardeni

Retailers Getting Squeezed; Good News for Inflation Outlook?

May 18, 2022 1 min read

Today's 4.0% plunge in the S&P 500 was more of the same pain experienced by most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 so far this year.

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Falling; Powell Talking Tough

May 18, 2022 2 min read paid

The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) dropped further below 1.00 during the May 17 week, to 0.65 from 0.68 the prior week.

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In These Numbers

May 17, 2022 2 min read

It has been a good day for the US economy.

Ed Yardeni

Friday the 13th Was A Lucky Day for S&P 500

May 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Friday the 13th was a lucky day for stock bulls. On Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 18.1% from its record high on January 3. It was on the edge of a bear market (defined as down 20%-plus from the most recent high).

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks

May 13, 2022 4 min read paid

Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. Note: The following is an excerpt from a recent YRI Morning Briefing. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from August 25, 1987 through December

Ed Yardeni