Stock Market

US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

Sep 12, 2026 5 min read

I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack that originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: History Lesson

Aug 8, 2026 5 min read

The S&P 500 broke out of its summer range this week to yet another record high. The index closed at 7,757.64 on Friday, clearing the 7,500 level it had circled since May 14. The index is 3.5% above its 50-day moving average and 9.8% above its 200-day moving average. Those are not extreme readings. The breakout is a good moment to

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO

Aug 4, 2026 5 min read paid

In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." Following his remarks—alongside reports of ongoing regional mediation via Qatar and Oman—crude oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude fell below $80/barrel. The US Treasury yield curve edged lower

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: AI Fatigue Weighs On The 'Lag-7'

Jun 27, 2026 4 min read

As we predicted, the S&P 500 had a June Swoon. We expected that it would be more of a broadening rotation than a widespread correction. That's the way it played out. The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index peaked at a record high of 7,609.78 on June 2 (chart). It fell 3.4% through Friday's close. Over that same

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June's Swoons

Jun 23, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock market was hit by another June swoon today. Investors were unnerved by the outcome of last Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The committee participants were more hawkish than expected, according to their Dot Plot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from providing his dot, but he came across as very hawkish during his presser, repeatedly stressing the importance of the Fed achieving price stability. Also weighing on AI-related

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bull Jumping In Crete

Jun 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Greetings from Greece. My colleagues, Elias and Toby, have been writing the QTs this week while my wife and I are vacationing in Crete and Santorini. The weather, food, and people are great. In Crete, we visited the ruins of the Palace at Knossos. It was the ceremonial and political center of the Minoan civilization and culture that thrived during the Bronze Age. We learned that for fun, Minoans enjoyed

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

On Wednesday, June 3, we titled our QuickTakes "June Swoon?" As it turned out, the question mark should have been an exclamation mark. On Friday, June 5, stocks swooned unmistakably. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383.74, down 2.64%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 equal-weight indexes fell 4.77% and 1.45%, respectively. The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected payroll

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June Swoon?

Jun 3, 2026 4 min read

So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (chart). Yesterday, we raised the caution flag, suggesting a possible pullback over the

Ed Yardeni

Don't Freak Out About The Bond Vigilantes Just Yet

May 19, 2026 4 min read paid

The selloff in the US Treasury bond market continued today. The 30-year yield hit a high of 5.19%, its highest level since July 2007. The 10-year yield surged to 4.69%, its highest since January 2025 (chart). Just as unsettling as these levels is how quickly yields have risen over the past few days. We think that happened in response to last week's hotter-than-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Champagne Glass Is More Than Half Full

Apr 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Happy days are here again! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to record highs today, which just happens to be tax day. What's all the excitement about? The AI bubble hasn't burst, so far. Instead, hyperscaler stocks are leading the charge since the stock market bottomed on March 30 (chart). The private credit bubble may be losing some air, but it isn't

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E

Apr 5, 2026 5 min read paid

Last Monday saw the S&P 500 down 9.1% from its January 27 high, which we believe marks the trough of the latest pullback, for now. That was our call on Tuesday. The next two days could make or break our call. Today, President Donald Trump issued a final, profanely worded ultimatum, setting a firm deadline for what he is calling "Power Plant Day." He specified

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates

Mar 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the "bog of war"). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a longer war and more American casualties, which will cause an uproar in the US. On Tuesday, March 3, we wrote: "We've been expecting a pullback

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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