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The Bears' Two Favorite Charts
To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&…
Recession
71 posts
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Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing
The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday,…
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No Boom, No Bust
Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is…
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Powell's Plateau
The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate…
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Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators
The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12,…
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Inventories Depress GDP
Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1.…
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Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder
The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their…
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The Fed Has Done Enough
The banking crisis might be equivalent to a 100bps hike in the federal funds rate. We are just guessing, but…
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Capital Spending Getting A Lift From Washington
Inflation-adjusted capital spending rose 4% y/y during Q4. That was a solid increase. However, it may be starting to…
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The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
The economic indicators this week are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a rolling recession. Single-family housing is…
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Regional Puzzle Pieces Showing Slowing Economy & Inflation
Almost everyone working on Wall Street is on vacation, except for the bears. They've been munching on stock…
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2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously?
With the benefit of hindsight, the title of this QT certainly applied to 2022. It was a tough year for…
