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Homebuilders Slammed As Sales Fall, Costs Soar
There's lots of stagflation in the new home market. During April, new home sales (registered when contracts are…
Inflation
Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.
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A Stagflationary Day
Today's batch of economic indicators has been unambiguously stagflationary. Consider the following:…
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DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks
Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market?
I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led…
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DEEP DIVE: Inflation Boosts Earnings & Depresses Valuation
Over the past year, inflation has been having a positive impact on analysts’ consensus forecasts for earnings in 2022 and…
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DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey
Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return?…
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Inflation Showing First Signs of Peaking
We are on the lookout for signs that inflation might be peaking. It’s hard to find any when we look at the price and wage data on a y/y basis. However, there are hopeful signs in numerous 3-month percent changes at annual rates. Consider the following:…
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Some Bad & Good News On Unit Labor Costs
Contributing to the stock market selloff today was more bad news on the inflation front. Nonfarm business (NFB) productivity dropped 7.5% (saar) during Q1. It wasn’t as bad on a y/y basis, falling just 0.6%. It’s a very volatile series on a q/q basis and even on a y/y basis.…
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Inflation Is Deflating Valuation Multiples
More air came out of valuation multiples this past week. Here are the forward P/Es of the major indexes at the start of this year and on Friday:…
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Sharp Increases in Rent Expected Over the Next Year
The Federal Reserve Bank of NY today released results from its 2022 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations.…
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