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Inflation Is Global & Local
Inflation has soared around the world over the past year. At first, last spring, it was attributed to “transitory” supply-chain…
Inflation
Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.
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Oil Prices Might Be Peaking
The best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. They are boosting production, while weighing on demand. As…
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The Best Cure for High Commodity Prices
In the commodity pits, traders often say: "The best cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices."…
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Small Business Owners Depressed But Still Hiring
Inflation is depressing, and it is depressing everyone—including consumers, business people, and investors in stocks and bonds. For example,…
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Uncle Sam Isn’t Santa Claus
Following Friday’s CPI shocker, the financial media seem to have concluded that the Fed will have no choice but…
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Protracted Inflation
Inflation is no longer transitory or persistent. It is protracted. The headline and core CPI inflation rates have yet to…
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Quantitative Tightening Begins
In recent conversations with our accounts, we have been hearing more concern about the Fed’s second round of quantitative…
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Inflation May Be Peaking
The headline and core PCED inflation rates both edged down in April to 6.3% and 4.9%, raising expectations…
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Three Related Signals of a Global Economic Slowdown
The widely followed proxy for the expected inflation rate in the 10-year TIPS market dropped in recent days from over…
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Homebuilders Slammed As Sales Fall, Costs Soar
There's lots of stagflation in the new home market. During April, new home sales (registered when contracts are…
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A Stagflationary Day
Today's batch of economic indicators has been unambiguously stagflationary. Consider the following:…
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DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks
Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market?
I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led…
