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ECB Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place
Soaring consumer prices and the prospect of energy rationing this coming winter have depressed consumer confidence in the Eurozone. No…
Inflation
Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.
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Signs of Peak Inflation
Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing…
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Tomorrow's ECI Could Be Bad News
Q2's Employment Cost Index (ECI) comes out tomorrow morning. In his press conference yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell…
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It's A Banana!
Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "…
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More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown
The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown)…
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Is the Stock Market Discounting Peak Inflation?
The S&P 500 rose yesterday by 2.76% to 3936.69. It is up 7.4% from its…
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NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures
The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations…
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Homebuilders' Sentiment Plummets
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a survey designed to gauge market conditions, found builder…
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The Rent Is Too D@mn High!
The Fed's ultra-easy monetary policies, in response to the pandemic, caused home prices to soar, and now rents…
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Inflation Remained Persistent In June
The bottom line on June's headline CPI release is that it was higher than expected and showed few…
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Will June's CPI Inflation Rate Be the Peak?
June’s CPI will be out tomorrow. Bloomberg is showing consensus estimates of up 1.1% m/m (8.8%…
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Is the Bond Market Anticipating Peak Inflation?
The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has recently stabilized around 3.00%. That calm reflects a remarkable increase in the…
