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Good News Bears
The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is…
Inflation
Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.
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The Fed Is Too Hawkish
Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed…
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Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings
It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by…
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The Bond Vigilantes: They're Baaaack!
The Bond Vigilantes are back. They were last active during the 1980s and early 1990s. They've been mostly…
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The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30
The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that…
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Another Awful Risk-Off Week
The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx…
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TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?
The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During…
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Fed Stays On Tightening Course
The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed…
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CPI Tends To Overstate Inflation Relative To PCED
August's CPI unnerved the stock market because its core inflation rate was higher than expected. August's…
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Inflation Shocks The Markets
August's CPI report shocked the financial markets. It was widely expected to confirm that inflation peaked around June…
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Inflation Expectations Falling Fast Along With Pump Price
We believe that it is the pump price of gasoline prominently posted daily at every service station in America that…
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Divine Disinflation In NM-PMI Survey
Investors are rooting for "divine disinflation." We all want inflation to come down without a painful recession. We…
