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Another Soft Patch
The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in…
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43 posts
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Triple Whammy
Today started out with a triple whammy for the stock market. Meta took it on the chin, the GDP report…
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Sweet Economic Indicators
Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2%…
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50 Shades of Bright Colors
The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking…
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Leading Indicator Still Misleading
January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling…
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The US Economy Remains Bullish
One day, there will be a recession. It just didn't happen in 2022 or 2023, as was widely…
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The Week Ahead: January 22 - 26
The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of…
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Good News Is Bad News
Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's…
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Upside Surprises
The economy isn't landing; it's flying high. Following better-than-expected July reports for housing starts and industrial…
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The Economic Week Ahead: August 14-18
This week is packed with July's composite cyclical indicator releases which should ease fears that economic growth might…
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Inflation Remains On Downward Trend
The FOMC can take the rest of the year off. The federal funds rate is now restrictive enough to bring…
