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50 Shades of Bright Colors
The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking…
GDP
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Leading Indicator Still Misleading
January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling…
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The US Economy Remains Bullish
One day, there will be a recession. It just didn't happen in 2022 or 2023, as was widely…
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The Week Ahead: January 22 - 26
The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of…
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Good News Is Bad News
Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's…
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Upside Surprises
The economy isn't landing; it's flying high. Following better-than-expected July reports for housing starts and industrial…
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The Economic Week Ahead: August 14-18
This week is packed with July's composite cyclical indicator releases which should ease fears that economic growth might…
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Inflation Remains On Downward Trend
The FOMC can take the rest of the year off. The federal funds rate is now restrictive enough to bring…
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The Bull Deserves A Rest
The bull market's winning streak ended today. The Dow closed higher for 13 straight sessions through Wednesday, its…
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The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28
The Fed is widely expected to hike the federal funds rate (FFR) on Wednesday by 25bps to a range of…
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Rolling Expansion?
What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover.…
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A Hawkish Skip at the Fed
In this past Sunday's QT, we wrote: "On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will update us on…
