FOMC

Certainly Uncertain

Mar 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word "uncertainty" 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it's impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries, and for how long. When the specifics are revealed, it will still be difficult to forecast their impact on economic growth and inflation in the US and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 17-21

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, though the tone of Powell's presser may depend on how February's batch of economic indicators released on Monday and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Mind the Minutes

Feb 19, 2025 3 min read paid

The Minutes from January's FOMC meeting was released today. On balance, it confirmed that the Fed is on hold but still leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate some more if and when inflation falls closer to 2%. It's a dovish pause, which is supportive of both stocks and bonds. Consider a few key points, as well as recent economic data: (1) Inflation outlook. FOMC participants

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27-31

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We're broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate of Q4 real GDP to come in around its historical average at 3.0% y/y (Tue), increasing from Q3's 2.7% (chart). Inflation should remain low,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Jan 8, 2025 3 min read

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be, especially if the 10-year US Treasury bond yield revisits last year's high of 5.00%. That would probably bring a buying opportunity in the bond and stock markets. We think that bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stocks Still OK With Tariff Man

Nov 26, 2024 3 min read paid

Last night, President Trump posted on social media that he will slap a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada his first day in office. The tariff will remain in effect until fentanyl, other drugs, and illegal immigrants stop pouring over the northern and southern borders, he said. Similarly, Trump said China will face an additional 10% above any existing tariffs until it stems the flow of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

25bps Cut? We Strongly Dissent!

Nov 5, 2024 3 min read paid

We may or may not know tonight who will be the next president, but we should know which party will win a majority in the Senate and the House. It appears that Republicans are likely to do so. In this case, a Harris administration would be gridlocked, while a Trump administration would have more power to implement his policies, including higher tariffs (raising inflation risks) and lower taxes (ballooning the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stock & Bond Prices Flying With The Fed's Doves

Dec 13, 2023 3 min read paid

Today's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC after the committee's meeting was dovish. As a result, bond and stock prices continued their Santa Claus rallies that started at the beginning of November. The most important change in the latest SEP from the previous one during September is that the federal funds rate is projected to fall in 2024 to 4.6% rather than

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Always A Bad Month For Stocks

Sep 3, 2023 2 min read

September is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 12 months; it gets no respect because it has been the worst month for stocks on average since 1928 (chart). However, it has been up 45% of the time since then with a solid average gain of 3.2%. Even if the market is down this month, September is a good month for picking apples and it could be a good month for

Ed Yardeni

On A Wing & A Prayer

Nov 17, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

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