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Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’
Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity.…
Bond Market
52 posts
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MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys
Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a…
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Modern Monetary Magic At Work
Republican Everett Dirksen was the Senate Minority Leader during the 1960s. Cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting…
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Powell & Co. Slams The Pedal To The Metal
Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims…
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Treasuries Anticipating Trump 2.0?
Long-term US government bond prices fell sharply since the presidential debate on Thursday evening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from…
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Anatomy Of The Bond Yield
We expect that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield will remain rangebound between 4.00% and 5.00% for the…
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The Blob Keeps Growing. So Why Aren't Bond Yields Soaring?
The federal deficit narrowed a bit to $1.63 trillion over the 12 months through April (chart). However, over the…
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Market Call: Loop-The-Loop
Keep your seat belts on: There may be a few more loop-the-loops in the stock market's rollercoaster ride.…
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Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves
It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that…
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Dr Ed's Market Calls .... as reported in the financial press
We are often asked about our track record in predicting the economy and financial markets. In response, we've…
