Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 7)

US Economy Remains On Growth Track

Dec 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy is growing despite anemic payroll employment gains. That can only happen if productivity growth accelerates and raises real wages enough to offset the weakness in employment. The question is whether productivity growth will continue to do so. It will in our Roaring 2020s scenario. The risk is that stronger real wages don't more than offset weaker employment, which would depress personal income and consumption. This is

Ed Yardeni

Keeping An Eye On The Price Of Crude Oil

Dec 15, 2025 3 min read paid

All eyes will be on tomorrow's US employment report for November. That will obviously be our focus too. However, we will also be monitoring the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil regularly tomorrow and in coming days. That's because it seems to be on the verge of slipping below $60 (chart). Why does that matter? From a technical perspective, it might signal a significant

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 15–19

Dec 14, 2025 3 min read

This week is loaded with long-delayed government data releases, including on employment and inflation, which will provide a reality check on the economy's performance in the final weeks of 2025. This week's earnings reports from FedEx, General Mills, Carnival, and Jabil could also be illuminating. Last week's Federal Open Market Committee event produced a third rate cut this year, three dissenting votes, and the

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Impressive S&P 493 Ready For Broadway In 2026

Dec 13, 2025 4 min read paid

The S&P 500's Magnificent-7 might be less magnificent in 2026 as their fierce competition in the AI race starts to erode the monopolies they have enjoyed in search (Google), software (Microsoft), retailing (Amazon), advertising (Meta), electric vehicles (Tesla), smartphones (Apple), and GPU chips (Nvidia). The beneficiaries of that competition are likely to be the S&P 500's Impressive 493. A week ago, we

Ed Yardeni

AI CALL: The TIME Curse & The Game of Thrones

Dec 11, 2025 3 min read paid

"The Architects of AI" are this year's TIME Person of the Year. We asked Google's Gemini, "Can you list when the front cover of TIME featuring Person of the Year has turned out to be a curse?" Gemini responded as follows: "While TIME Magazine maintains that "Person of the Year" is a measure of influence (for better or worse)

Ed Yardeni

Fed Is ‘Well Positioned’ To Do Nothing For A While

Dec 10, 2025 3 min read

As widely expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps today. It has lowered the FFR by 75bps since September of this year. Since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, this rate has declined by 175 bps to 3.50%-3.75%. In his prepared remarks at today’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rightly observed the obvious: "The adjustments

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 2026: Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

Dec 10, 2025 1 min read paid

The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions for earnings and valuation levels produce an S&P 500 price target of 7700 by year-end 2026. Alternative scenarios include a bear case, triggered by a recession or recession fears (20%

Ed Yardeni

On Walmart, Silver & Jobs

Dec 9, 2025 3 min read paid

I. Walmart Goes Nasdaq On Sunday, we wrote, "In effect, our spin is that every company is evolving into a technology company." Today, Walmart transferred its primary listing to the technology-heavy Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange, where it has traded since 1972—making it the largest company ever to make that move. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon cited the company's technology progress as the main

Ed Yardeni

Fed Easing Fails To Ease Bond Yields

Dec 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed started its latest monetary easing cycle in September of last year. In his October press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Now we’re

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 8-12

Dec 7, 2025 3 min read

Obviously, this week is all about the Fed's big interest-rate decision (Wed); the policymakers are expected almost universally to cut rates 25bps for a third time this year. The immediate focus will be on the composition of the FOMC's vote and the insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: how many dissenters, if any; Fed officials' take on the balance of risks

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Rebalancing Domestic & Global Stock Portfolios In 2026

Dec 7, 2025 4 min read paid

It no longer makes much sense for us to continue recommending overweighting the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors in an S&P 500 portfolio, as we have since 2015. The same can be said about overweighting the United States in the All Country World (ACW) MSCI portfolio, as we have been since 2010. Consider the following: (1) Rebalancing S&P 500 portfolio. The problem is that the

Ed Yardeni

CODE RED: Altman's Existential Crisis & Trump's Affordability Crisis

Dec 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has lost its mojo recently. The S&P 500 has been hovering around 6800 since late November. It did recover nicely from a November 20 low of 6538. But the rebound since then has failed to lift the index above the October 29 record high of 6890. It may break out above that high after the FOMC’s December 9-10 meeting if the Fed delivers the

Ed Yardeni

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