Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 7)

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 10-14

Nov 9, 2025 3 min read

On October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "[W]hat do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down." He was referring to the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. The Fed and the financial markets now have been deprived of two monthly employment reports. Add to the shutdown casualties list the October PPI and CPI, which would've

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: From AI Zen To AI Jitters

Nov 9, 2025 3 min read

The S&P 500 peaked at a record high of 6890.59 on October 28 (chart). It is down 2.4% since then. It retested its 50-day moving average on Friday, falling slightly below it around noon. It then closed higher on the day on hopes that a compromise proposal from the Democrats might end the government shutdown. Negotiations are reportedly happening, but they remain tense and far from

Ed Yardeni

Challenging The Challenger Report

Nov 6, 2025 3 min read

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell this morning on news that layoffs rose sharply, according to the Challenger Report, which was titled "JOB CUTS SURPASS 1 MILLION; HIGHEST OCTOBER TOTAL SINCE 2003. COMPANIES CITE COST-CUTTING, AI IN OCTOBER." That headline is somewhat sensational. It refers to the past 12 months through October. The actual number of layoffs during the month was 153,074, as the report notes

Ed Yardeni

More Thoughts On The Latest 'Big Short' & Other Matters

Nov 5, 2025 3 min read paid

On Tuesday, investors sold AI-related stocks on news that Michael Burry had shorted Palantir and Nvidia. Today, investors realized that his most prominent short position by far is in Palantir, which currently has a forward P/E of 212.9. Nvidia has a forward P/E of 32.7 (chart). Except for Tesla, the other Magnificent-7 have lower forward P/Es than Nvidia. Burry is famous for his "Big

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Powell’s Swan Song

Nov 5, 2025 1 min read paid

The data-dependent Fed is operating as well as possible without the usual economic data releases from government agencies during the shutdown. The shutdown is the latest in a series of unusual challenges Jerome Powell has navigated admirably as Fed chair. When his term ends in May, he’ll no doubt be replaced by a Trump loyalist, who undoubtedly will push the FOMC’s other voting members to provide easy monetary

Ed Yardeni

The 'Big Short' Is Shorting AI

Nov 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Hedge fund manager Michael Burry was portrayed in the film The Big Short. He bet big against the housing market before the 2008 crash and made a fortune. Now, he is taking another "big short" position against Nvidia and Palantir, two widely held AI stocks (chart). A regulatory filing showed that his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, has bought put options on the two high flyers. Investors are

Ed Yardeni

GDP IS HOT

Nov 3, 2025 2 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 3-7

Nov 2, 2025 2 min read

A big week of economic releases is coming up, but the government won’t be reporting them because it is closed for business. Nevertheless, the week ahead will still be a big one for private-sector economic data. On balance, they are likely to show that the economy is expanding, consumers are spending, and employment is still growing, albeit at a slow pace. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. The weekly

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Super-Duper Earnings

Nov 1, 2025 3 min read

S&P 500 earnings per share continue to beat expectations. Q3 earnings per share are on track to rise to a new record high. They are driving the S&P 500 stock price index to new record highs. The Magnificent-7 are leading the way higher on both fronts. As a result, the S&P 500 market-weight index continues to outperform the equal-weight index (chart). On Friday, Amazon

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: We Dissent

Oct 30, 2025 3 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 27, 2025 Morning Briefing. The Fed will almost certainly cut the FFR by 25bps on Wednesday. It will probably do it again on December 10. Apparently, Fed officials believe that the current 4.00% reading of the FFR is restrictive. That’s because they are collectively convinced that the long-run FFR is 3.00% (Fig. 12 below). This rate is also often

Ed Yardeni

Don't Feed The Animal Spirits

Oct 29, 2025 3 min read paid

In his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told financial market participants that today's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) might not be followed by another one on December 10, when the FOMC votes on monetary policy again. "In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said. "A further

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Inflation: 3.0% Is The New 2.0%

Oct 29, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed Put is back. Given the likelihood of two more reductions in the federal funds rate before year-end, we’re reducing the odds of our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario from 55% to 50% and raising the odds of an even more bullish stock market meltup from 25% to 30%. Indeed, the stock market jumped Friday in reaction to a cooler-than-expected inflation report, since it buoys the case for

Ed Yardeni

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