The regional business surveys conducted by the NY & Philly Federal Reserve Banks are consistent with our "growth recession" scenario and provide more evidence that inflationary pressures peaked around mid-year.
These September surveys are among the most current readings of the economy and tend to be highly correlated with three other comparable surveys that will be released before the end of the month. They are also highly correlated with the national M-PMI, which will be released for September at the start of October.
