The S&P 500 fell just below its 50-day moving average today partly because the labor market remains hot. July's JOLTS report showed that there were 11.2 million job openings for 5.7 million of the unemployed (chart below). In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded slightly from July's low as only 11.4% of CCI survey respondents said jobs are hard to get (chart below).
Echoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, FRB-NY President John Williams today said, “We’re going to need to have restrictive policy for some time.” So forget about lower interest rates next year. On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he was "happy" to see the stock market take a dive on Friday in response to Powell's talk.
