What Will Powell Say?

Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC is widely expected to increase the federal funds rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. There is much less certainty about what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at his press conference at 2:30 p.m. after the meeting. The bulls, including yours truly, are hoping to hear that after another rate hike of 75bps next month to 4.50%-4.75%, the Fed is likely to pause rate-hiking to assess the economic impact of raising the federal funds rate by a whopping 450bps during the 10 months since March of this year. That’s probably asking for more than Powell is likely to deliver.