The Economic Week Ahead: Dec. 12-16

All we want for Christmas is a lower-than-expected November CPI (Tue.) and a less hawkish press conference (Wed.) by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Santa Claus rally depends on this seasonally happy scenario.

The week ahead starts with the NY Fed's November survey of consumer expectations (Mon.). The recent drop in gasoline prices should moderate inflationary expectations. November's NFIB small business survey (Tue.) should provide additional perspective on both inflationary pressures and the labor market. The same can be said for December's NY and Philly regional business surveys (Thu.). We expect these surveys will confirm a soft-landing scenario is underway.