The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following:

(1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last month. July’s flash estimate for the M-PMI edged down too. July’s NM-PMI will be released on Wednesday. Its flash estimate was surprisingly weak.