The Economic Week Ahead: April 10-14

The banking crisis is bound to keep investors on edge. This week, the big banks will report their earnings. Last week, in his annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders, Jamie Dimon wrote "the crisis is not yet over." The other executives at the major banks are likely to say the same during their earnings conference calls later this week. The magnitude of their concern will be revealed by how much they increase their allowances for loan losses.

The BIG event this week will be the release of the March CPI report on Wednesday. It is likely to show that goods inflation continues to moderate, while services inflation remains persistent. On balance, we expect y/y increases of 5.5% and 5.0% in the headline and core CPI, down from 6.0% and 5.5% in February.

Friday will be jam-packed with economic indicators. March retail sales is likely to be lackluster given the weak 0.1% m/m increase in our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income (chart).