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Our Roaring 2020s outlook for this decade centers on the idea that technological innovations such as the so-called BRAIN technologies…

The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was…

Last week brought epic rallies in both the stock and bond markets. We think the stock market’s correction is…

We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the…

The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects.…

To answer whether the latest bout of inflation in general will prove persistent or transitory, we must look deeper than…

Today, we challenge another aspect of the hard landers’ narrative: the notion that consumers will retrench, leading the broad economy…

Last week’s plentiful economic news netted out to support our optimistic economic outlook through next year, bringing more signs…

The Fed has paused its rate hiking for now but not without warning that resumed tightening is possible. Either way,…

What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent…

Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast…