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The Bears' Two Favorite Charts
To support their pessimistic outlook, bearish prognosticators tend to focus on two charts. The first one shows the S&…
Recession
71 posts
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Hard to Have a Hard Landing When Employment Is Growing
The S&P 500 rallied on Friday following yet another stronger-than-expected employment report. In his press conference on Wednesday,…
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No Boom, No Bust
Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is…
público
Powell's Plateau
The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate…
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Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators
The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12,…
público
Inventories Depress GDP
Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1.…
público
Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder
The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their…
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The Fed Has Done Enough
The banking crisis might be equivalent to a 100bps hike in the federal funds rate. We are just guessing, but…
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Capital Spending Getting A Lift From Washington
Inflation-adjusted capital spending rose 4% y/y during Q4. That was a solid increase. However, it may be starting to…
público
The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
The economic indicators this week are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a rolling recession. Single-family housing is…
público
Regional Puzzle Pieces Showing Slowing Economy & Inflation
Almost everyone working on Wall Street is on vacation, except for the bears. They've been munching on stock…
público
2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously?
With the benefit of hindsight, the title of this QT certainly applied to 2022. It was a tough year for…
