Fed Playing With An Economy On Fire?

Today, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q3's real GDP growth rate to 3.0% (saar) from 2.5% following the release of solid retail sales and industrial production reports for August (chart). Leading the way was an upward revision in real consumer spending growth to a whopping 3.7% from 3.5%. The increase in real spending on capital equipment was raised to 11.6% from 10.8%.

Today's two reports, along with August's payroll employment gain, confirm that the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) rose to yet another record high last month. The y/y growth rates of the CEI and real GDP are highly correlated, and both are rising at a solid pace (chart).