Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/13/24

Is Bostic on to something? We think the Atlanta Fed president is right to warn about “pent-up exuberance,” the business community’s readiness to pounce on opportunities en masse the minute interest rates drop. Demand then could surge, triggering resurgent inflation. The Fed should be wary of tripping that wire by lowering interest rates too soon. … Yet Fed Chair Powell sounded ready to ease soon last Thursday. We don’t think the recession threat (of keeping rates higher for longer) is as worrisome as the pent-up exuberance threat (of easing too soon).

Our Roaring 2020s scenario is right on track. Fingers crossed the Fed doesn’t mess with success.