The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February's PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren't likely to translate to the PCED due to some hotter components that feed through to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Regardless, February's inflation data are relatively stale. We think consumer expectations and any new tariff news ahead of the April 2 "Liberation Day," when President Trump will impose reciprocal tariffs around the world, are more likely to move the markets.
Here's what we're watching:
