The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-related inflationary pressures are building. Here's more:
(1) GDP. Wholesalers and retailers rushed to build inventories ahead of tariff implementation, leading to surging imports (chart). Consumer spending growth was subdued because both January and February were unusually cold months. The result will probably be relatively flat real GDP growth in Q1.
