The Fed is starting a new easing cycle to avoid a recession that we don’t see coming, based on concern about labor market deterioration that we don’t see occurring. Today, Dr. Ed compares and contrasts the world according to the Fed with the world according to our team, explaining the thinking behind both. Notably, the Fed is risking its credibility by easing without regard for election results, as both presidential candidates’ policies would raise the federal deficit in a one-party sweep, an inflationary prospect. We are rooting for gridlock. … Also: Three misleading economic indicators continue to stoke recession fears unduly.
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