Last week saw unfounded US recession fears and global financial market jitters go poof as quickly as they arrived. Dr. Ed examines what the markets were overreacting to when they beat a hasty retreat and the subsequent developments that set investors straight. … Weather was the reason for much of the weakness in July’s economic indicators, suggesting that August’s data may surprise on the upside and that Fed officials might push back against expectations of numerous rate cuts ahead. We expect just one 25bps cut in September and no more for the year, especially since a greater cut could trigger another carry-trade unwind. … As for the bond market, we see three possible scenarios and lean toward the mildly bearish one.
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