Corporate earnings have never been higher, suggesting that employment should continue to grow as profitable companies expand their payrolls. Today, Ed and Eric put the prospect of a recession into perspective with their “Credit Crisis Cycle.” Ed notes that S&P 500 companies’ record-high forward earnings is a bullish indicator for the stock price index. The S&P 500 forward profit margin is near its record high and expected to hit new highs in the productivity growth boom we project, our Roaring 2020s scenario. … Eric explains why this time, a disinverting yield curve is not signaling an imminent recession as it has in the past. Other relied upon recession indicators are flashing false signals as well.
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