Our economic and S&P 500 forecasts are underpinned by our forecasts for corporate revenues, earnings, and profit margins. We often compare them to industry analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 companies in aggregate and how they change over time in response to earnings reports. Today, we illustrate this process by showing how data from Q1’s earnings season have fed into our own annual and forward EPS estimates, which multiplied by target forward P/Es produces our S&P 500 targets for year-end 2024, 2025, and 2026 of 5400, 6000, and 6500. Notably, Q1’s reported revenues and earnings edged down from their recent record highs, but analysts’ estimates for the future rose, showing that the quarter’s results were much better than expected.
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