Anatomy Of Gross National Product
Why is the US economy so strong? Look in the mirror: The consumer is the engine of growth. Yes, technological advancements will continue to buoy GDP, as will Trump 2.0 deregulation and lower taxes. But consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of real GDP. We reject the notion that consumer spending will slow in the face of depleted saving and other drags; it’s too resilient, which is why the economy is so resilient. Likewise, we don’t expect capital spending to slow notwithstanding a weak Q4; companies still have much to gain from investments in AI and other technological innovations. That’s the linchpin of our productivity-led Roaring 2020s outlook (55% odds) and higher S&P 500 price targets for the rest of the decade.
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