Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying potential economic scenarios to see how they change the narrative. The result: Dr Ed’s three inflation scenarios—the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. In the Good, rising productivity growth moderates inflation even as it spurs economic growth; that’s the crux of our Roaring 2020s economic scenario and is the most likely scenario to play out. The Bad is a witches’ brew of possibilities with bearish inflationary consequences. The Ugly involves a geopolitical crisis catapulting oil prices. That ’70s show seems farfetched these days.
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