With economic growth robust and the stock market at a record high, we’re living the Roaring 2020s now. The economy’s resilience has been remarkable considering the headwinds it has faced. While the outlook under Trump 2.0 involves lots of moving parts, we don’t see the net effects of his policies jeopardizing the Roaring 2020s’ continuation. In this scenario (with our 55% subjective probability), Trump 2.0 might boost productivity and economic growth, keep inflation subdued, shrink the federal government, slow the growth of government spending, and narrow the federal deficit. Among the biggest of the many challenges ahead: not inciting the Bond Vigilantes.
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