Geopolitics I: What Trump Wants from Canada & Mexico.
It’s become abundantly clear to us what President Donald Trump wants from Mexico. To Trump, Mexico is a looming security threat. In his view, the country must reclaim control over the drug trade and the migrant flows spilling over the southern US border. His demand is simple: curb the cartels and stem the flow of illegal substances. But there’s more to it—Trump is furious that Chinese companies are increasingly using Mexico as a gateway to sidestep US tariffs. For Trump, Mexico’s economic proximity to China is an unacceptable strategic liability.
But what does Trump really want from Canada? That’s less obvious. The dealmaker-in-chief has an end in mind beyond the revenues from the 25% tariffs slapped on Canadian and Mexican goods (10% for Canadian oil).
A closer examination of this administration’s foreign policy blueprint hints at an overarching objective of economic and national security. For Trump to secure the US’s energy future, he needs the Western Hemisphere to function as a coherent energy bloc. This means both a reliable, unimpeded flow of oil and natural resources from Canada and a safer Mexico. And that means both countries under the US’s thumb.
Let’s break it down:
(1) The first global trade war punch. Trump’s recent flurry of tariffs is a textbook example of his “America First” foreign policy.
In late January, Trump fired a 25% tariff salvo at Colombia, punishing the nation for failing to control its citizens illegally present in the US. Colombian President Gustavo Petro initially brushed off Trump’s threats. But he quickly backed down, acknowledging publicly his responsibility for his country’s undocumented citizens. Why the sudden 180?
Trump had sent an unmistakable message on social media: “FAFO” (standing for “F*** Around, Find Out”) accompanied by an AI-generated image of a steely-eyed Trump in a gangster-style fedora. Leaving to the imagination what happens when one disrespects US interests packed a more powerful punch than any diplomatically worded retaliatory threat ever could.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earned a one-month pause on any tariffs after speaking with President Trump. She agreed to send 10,000 soldiers to the US–Mexico border to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs, and assured Trump that Mexico is committed to stymying China. Speaking ostensibly to her domestic shareholders but using a Trumpian tone, Sheinbaum spoke about onshoring and “Made in Mexico” products. We think Mexico’s president is onboard with Trump 2.0 and the realignment of global trade/security.
(2) Canada’s strategic value. Unlike Mexico, Canada doesn’t pose a direct security threat to the US. It’s a peaceful, stable country with a population of just 38 million—roughly 10% of the US population—but one that controls vast tracts of resource-rich land.
Canada’s oil exports to the US make it an indispensable partner. It ships about 3.9 million barrels per day across the border, easily outpacing Mexico’s second-place 397,000 barrels. In fact, Canada is the largest foreign oil supplier to the US. Canadian and Mexican imports account for roughly 25% of the crude oil processed in US refineries. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods may appear as a protectionist move on the surface; but in reality, they’re a negotiation tactic aimed at asserting greater control over Canada’s most vital commodity, energy.
