Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” ended yesterday in Vancouver. The extraordinary singer started this sixth concert tour in Glendale, Arizona on March 17, 2023. The tour consisted of 149 shows spanning five continents. Two of my daughters enjoyed her show in Toronto last month.
My “Roaring 2020s Tour” started in Dallas, Texas last Tuesday morning. That afternoon, after a great Tex-Mex lunch with a few accounts, I traveled to Fort Worth to meet with more accounts. A car service took me to Austin that night for my gig there on Wednesday. It was on to San Antonio for a small group dinner that evening at Bistr09. Then I was off to Houston to stay at the Houstonian Hotel for a group breakfast on Thursday. Next I flew to San Diego to speak at the NIRI Senior Roundtable Annual Meeting on Friday morning.
I enjoyed my discussions with our accounts. They all are pleased with the bull market in stocks. They are also rooting for our Roaring 2020s scenario. But they are nervous that stocks aren’t cheap now that valuation multiples are near previous bull market peaks. Their main concern for the fundamentals is that President Donald Trump might start a trade war. Everyone is also wondering whether the new administration will succeed in reducing the size, regulatory powers, headcount, and budget deficits of the federal government. In addition, a few people noted that mass deportation of illegal migrants might hamper some industries that rely on these workers. Everyone is uneasy about making so many policy changes at the same time. That could have unintended negative consequences for the economy and the financial markets.
Debbie, Eric, Joe, Melissa, and I share these concerns and are focusing our team’s research efforts on these mostly “known unknowns.” Our current assessment is that on balance Trump 2.0 will support our Roaring 2020s scenario for the remainder of the decade. To be politically fair, our scenario has unfolded very well under the current administration’s mix of policies favoring business regulations, open borders, lots of deficit-financed spending, and onshoring incentives.
