The Blob Keeps Growing. So Why Aren't Bond Yields Soaring?
The federal deficit narrowed a bit to $1.63 trillion over the 12 months through April (chart). However, over the…
Market Call: Sharp U-Turn
The S&P 500 bottomed most recently on April 19 at 4967.23, rising to 5222.68 on Friday.…
The Week Ahead: May 13 - 17
The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases. The big ones are for inflation, retail sales, and production. They…
DEEP DIVE: The Causes of Recessions & Bear Markets, a Recap
There are three ways that recessions typically are triggered: 1) a monetary-tightening-induced financial crisis turns into a credit crunch; 2)…
The Recession Claim
One of our competitors claims that we are in a recession. Another claims that we will soon be in a…
Tight Fed Fueling Foreign Stock Market Rallies?
In the past, the major foreign central banks often followed the Fed's lead. This time, they aren'…
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Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/8/24
Investors in both stock and bond markets are suddenly blooming with optimism. Both markets rallied on Friday’s (mostly) positive…
DEEP DIVE: AI Chips & The Others
A handful of semiconductors companies reported earnings and made it clear that the rabid demand for chips used to run…
Monster Trucks With Monster Bills
Since just before the pandemic during January 2020 through March of this year, the CPI indexes for new autos, auto…
US Purchasing Managers Report Weakening Economy
Among last week’s batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators were April’s M-PMI and NM-PMI compiled by the Institute for…
Market Call: Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear, Again.
Nothing to worry about? The geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil has dropped sharply since early April. The…