Ed Yardeni

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for that, as the majority would

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Good, The (Not So) Bad & The (Relatively) Ugly

Sep 10, 2025 1 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s economic scenario and expectations for inflation and the labor market suggest that the Fed probably shouldn’t cut interest rates this year, although one cut might be warranted if upcoming inflation reports are more subdued than we expect. Yet a rate cut next week, after the FOMC meets Wednesday, is practically a foregone conclusion. Stimulating an economy that doesn’t need stimulation won’t create more workers

Ed Yardeni

Lots Of News

Sep 9, 2025 4 min read paid

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn't move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August's PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let's review all the non-events today: (1) Gold & geopolitics. The nearby futures price of gold jumped to yet another record high of $3,707 per ounce this

Ed Yardeni

Earnings-Led Meltup?

Sep 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from "Apocalypse Now" featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation's second-largest city. "I love the smell of deportations in the morning," Trump wrote on his social media site. "Chicago about to find out why it'

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 8 - 12

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025. The preliminary revision will estimate how much the monthly payroll report overstated (or understated) actual job growth between April 2024 and March 2025. The final benchmark revision will be

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Weekly Roundup - September 7th

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read

US Labor Market Is In BalanceAugust’s employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month’s payrolls rose by just 22,000. June’s number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July’s number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August’s big losers wereYardeni QuickTakesEd YardeniFlocking Doves Tomorrow?Stock prices rose again today as

Ed Yardeni

US Labor Market Is In Balance

Sep 5, 2025 3 min read

August's employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month's payrolls rose by just 22,000. June's number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July's number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August's big losers were goods producers (-25,000), professional & business services (-17,000,

Ed Yardeni

Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Sep 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow's employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC's majority will turn dovish and will vote to cut the federal funds rate on September 17. Indeed, the odds are up to 99.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Stock investors must

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Oblivious To Weak Economic Data

Sep 3, 2025 3 min read

The S&P 500 rose today despite a batch of weak economic indicators over the past two days. Investors perceive that bad news is good news if it increases the chances of a Fed rate cut on September 17. Indeed, the odds of that happening are now 97.6%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's a sure thing. We've been at 40% and are

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: What Could Possibly Go Wrong (with special guest Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha)

Sep 3, 2025 1 min read paid

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. ❇️Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is Shining More Brightly Than Ever Before

Sep 2, 2025 2 min read paid

We turned bullish on gold last year when the spot price of the shiny metal decisively rose above $2,000 per ounce (chart). We attributed this new bull market in gold to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, the United States and its allies froze the international reserves of Russia's central bank. That convinced the central banks of countries with autocratic governments, which

Ed Yardeni

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