Ed Yardeni

Bull Jumping In Crete

Jun 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Greetings from Greece. My colleagues, Elias and Toby, have been writing the QTs this week while my wife and I are vacationing in Crete and Santorini. The weather, food, and people are great. In Crete, we visited the ruins of the Palace at Knossos. It was the ceremonial and political center of the Minoan civilization and culture that thrived during the Bronze Age. We learned that for fun, Minoans enjoyed

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST

Jun 10, 2026

🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!

Ed Yardeni

Booming Number Of Retiring Boomers Supports Consumer Spending & Depresses Saving

Jun 9, 2026 4 min read paid

The Doomsayers have long warned about one specific vulnerability of the US economy, i.e., the sustainability of consumer spending growth. Since July 2024, real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income growth on a y/y basis for 22 consecutive months. Spending is up 4.1% over that period, while disposable income rose just 1.1%. The widening gap has been filled by declining personal savings. The personal savings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MATERIALS: Small Weight, Big Growth

Jun 8, 2026 4 min read paid

We recommend overweighting the S&P 500 Materials sector. The sector accounts for just 1.9% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, so an overweight is cheap to implement, the same logic we applied to our Energy sector recommendation on April 20. S&P 500 Materials is up 9.9% ytd, fifth behind Energy, Information Technology, Industrials, and Real Estate. The stock price index

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Hot US data are pulling capital flows back home. The US share of the All Country World (ACW) MSCI is at 63.7%, well off the early-2025 peak of 67.4% but firming again. Europe’s share has slipped to 13.8% and Japan’s to 5.0% (chart). Emerging Markets’ share, at 12.3%, is near its cycle high. The ratio of the US MSCI to the ACW

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

On Wednesday, June 3, we titled our QuickTakes "June Swoon?" As it turned out, the question mark should have been an exclamation mark. On Friday, June 5, stocks swooned unmistakably. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383.74, down 2.64%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 equal-weight indexes fell 4.77% and 1.45%, respectively. The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected payroll

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 8-12

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is dominated by inflation prints. The May CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) top the calendar. From a consumer perspective, we will also see the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey (Mon) and the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment release (Fri). The “Federal Open Mouth Committee” is in the blackout period ahead of next week's committee meeting—i.e., the talking Fed heads

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Employment Is Heating Up, But So Is Inflation

Jun 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

June Swoon?

Jun 3, 2026 4 min read

So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (chart). Yesterday, we raised the caution flag, suggesting a possible pullback over the

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Turning Hawkish

Jun 3, 2026 1 min read paid

Today, Dr Ed and Elias set out the case for the Fed to tighten sooner rather than later. Unlike the consensus, which doesn’t expect a rate hike until late this year at the earliest, we see the FOMC raising the federal funds rate in July, after pivoting to a tightening bias at its meeting this month. That would be appropriate given the resilient economy, stable labor market, and rising

Ed Yardeni

Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?

Jun 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today, rising above 7600 for the first time. On May 11, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, still the highest forecast on Wall Street. We did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season. That led us to conclude that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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